Global Total Fertility Rate

Historic Global Total Fertility Rate (1950-2024)

The global total fertility rate peaked in 1963 when the world saw 5.0142 childern born per woman. Since then we have seen a steady decline of total fertility rate to the year 2024, and it is projected decrease even further to the end of this century.

Understanding Population Growth & Decline with Total Fertility Rate

The Total Fertility Rate is a key demographic indicator for understanding and projecting population growth and decline of a region. It is a measurement of the number of children a woman will have on average throughout her lifetime.

What is Total Fertility Rate?

Total Fertility Rate or TFR for short, is a measure of the number of children a woman is expected to have during her childbearing years

• A total fertility rate of 2.1 is considered to be the replacement level for a population, meaning that each generation will replace itself without the need of immigration.
• A TFR below 2.1 indicates a population decline
• A TFR above 2.1 indicates a population growth
• The total fertility rate can vary significantly between countries and regions, with developed countries usually having total fertility rates below replacement level and developing countries above replacement level.
• Economic, social, and cultural factors can influence TFR, such as access to education and employment opportunities for women, availability of birth control and family planning resources, and societal attitudes towards childbearing.
• Government policies such as parental leave, childcare, and financial incentives can affect total fertility rate.
• The total fertility rate changes over time in response to changes in society and economy.
• It's an important indicator of population growth and can have economic and social implications.
• The total fertility rate can also be affected by war, natural disasters, and other crisis that can disrupt families and communities and make it difficult for people to have children.
• Total fertility rate is widely used metric in demography, economics, and other social sciences to understand population trends and projections.

How is Fertility Rate calculated?

A population's fertility rate is most commonly calculated as Total Fertility Rate or TFR for short. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is a standard demographic indicator that is used internationally to estimate the average number of children born per woman in a population. It is calculated by adding up all the age-specific fertility rates, multiplying this sum by five (the width of the age-group interval), and then dividing by 1,000.

Total Fertility Rate Formula

Total Fertility Rate = (Sum of ASFR x 5 ) / 1000

What affects the total fertility rate?

There are a number of factors that can affect the Total Fertility Rate of a region and its population.

Economic Development

Economic development plays a big part in overall fertility rates. As a country or region becomes more developed, women are more likely to have access to education and employment opportunities. Historically this has lead to a decline in the total fertility rate in the developed countries of the world.

Access to Birth Control

In countries where women have access to effective birth control methods the total fertility rate is usually lower than in countries that don't.

Education

Education is another factors that affects the total fertility rate of a region. Women from countries who are more educated tend to have fewer children and have them later in their life.

Marriage and Family Structure

The Total Fertility Rate is also influenced by the age at which women marry and have children, as well as by the prevalence of cohabitation and single parenthood.

Government Policies

Policies such as tax breaks or subsidies for families with children plays a big part in a country's Total Fertility Rate. For example, in 1987, Denmark introduced a tax-free benefit called Child and Youth Benefit for parents of children under 18 years. This policy helped increase and stabilize Denmarks Total Fertility Rate. Other factors that affects the total fertility rate include parental leave, affordable childcare and child support.

Health and Mortality

The total fertility rate can also be affected by the health and mortality of women in a region. If women have poor health or are of high risk of dying, they may be less likely to have children.

Migration

The migration of people can also affect the Total Fertility Rate. When people move from one country to another they tend to bring their values and customs with them. If the people immigrating to a country have a stronger culture around marriage and family structures, while also having more children on average. Said migration can impact the overall fertility numbers of the country.

What is the Total Fertitlity Rate useful for?

The Total Fertility Rate is a useful messuremet for understanding a region or a country's fertility patterns. It is a commonly used for projecting future population growth or decline.

In what areas can the Total Fertility Rate be applied?

Healthcare

The total fertility rate can indicate the demand for prenatal and maternal healthcare services and help healthcare providers plan and allocate resources accordingly.

Education

TFR can also indicate the demand for schools and teachers of a region. This can help education planners and policy makers plan for the number of students in the future.

Workforce Planning

Future workforce supply can be better projected with the help of the Total Fertility Rate. Allowing employers and policy makers to plan for labor shortages or surpluses in the future.

Social and Economic Development

Accompanied with other messurements, the total fertility rate a region can of be used to understand the social and economic well-being of a population.

Demographic Projections

The Total Fertility Rate is also used to make projections about future population size and age structure. This can help policy makers plan for future needs such as healthcare, education, and housing.

International Comparisons

TFR is also used to compare fertility patterns across countries and regions, which can help understand the relative population growth potential and demographic challenges of different areas.

What is replacement level fertility?

A Total Fertility Rate of above 2.1 is considered as replacement level, at which the population of a region would be able to sustain itself without any growth or decline. A total fertility rate below 2.1 children per women may indicate a decrease in population growth, which can have economic and social implications.

Future Global Total Fertility Rate (2024-2100)

Around 2040, the effective total global fertility rate will fall below the replacement rate, which is roughly 2.1 children per woman. This will lead to a stabilization of the world population sometime during the period 2050–2070.

Population Fertility Rate by Country

The total fertility rate varies widley from country to country. As a rule of thumb, the rate is greater in less developed countries. Currently, most countries on the African continent have a fertility rate of 4-6 births per woman, while most of the developed western world have a fertility rate hovering between 1-2 births per woman.

In 2024, the country with the highest fertility was 🇳🇪 Niger with a rate of 6.74 births per woman. While the country with the lowest total fertility rate was 🇭🇰 China, Hong Kong SAR with a TFR of only 0.75 new borns per woman.

Population Fertility Rate by Region

Population Fertility Rate by Sub-region

Data Information

Data found on this page is based on the medium fertility variant of the United Nations Revision of World Population Prospects 2022.

Data Sources

The United Nations - Department of Economic and Social Affairs (Population Division)

UN Revision of World Population Prospects 2022

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